A Hellenocentric Approach to Containing the Russian Black Sea Fleet

Abstract

Russia’s ongoing occupation of Ukrainian and Georgian territory has left American leadership scrambling to form a coherent European defense policy. Though much time and attention is being given to NATO’s eastern flank, which includes Poland, Bulgaria and the Baltic states, policymakers have neglected to fortify the alliance’s southeastern flank. Conventional naval strategy has primarily relied upon Turkey to keep the Russian navy trapped in the Black Sea, but recent social, political and economic developments in Turkey call into question Ankara’s reliability as a NATO partner. They can no longer be trusted to contain the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the event that the alliance goes to war with the Russian Federation. This, then, raises an important question: is an alternative containment policy – one that does not rely on Turkish cooperation – feasible? In this thesis, I argue that the United States should look to Greece as a viable, reliable partner with which to develop a new containment strategy. In particular, I recommend that the United States expand its military presence at Alexandroupoli and Souda Bay, as well as establish a new military presence on the island of Skyros. This will allow the US navy to fulfill its strategic objectives while remaining unconstrained by Turkish policy on the matter.

This thesis pulls from a plethora of scholarly literature, but primarily considers contemporary political analysis produced by news agencies and NGOs. These bodies produce relevant, reliable information on events that are constantly evolving. This thesis seeks to dispel two myths commonly perpetuated by policymakers and academics alike: that Turkey, despite its recent provocative behavior, is still a reliable partner, and that it is, due to its geography, an indispensable ally. Instead, I find Greece to be a more preferable partner due to their unique geography and relatively limited regional ambitions. A hellenocentric containment policy is extraordinarily beneficial to the United States because it reduces Washington’s dependence on Ankara while fostering friendship with Greece, a country that has historically harbored deep anti-American sentiment. While the United States and Turkey maintain ever-increasing levels of enmity towards one another, Athens and Washington enjoy excellent diplomatic relations. In order to protect its national interests, the United States must seize the moment and establish a greater naval presence in the Greek-controlled Aegean Sea. Failure to do so will, if war breaks out, result in extraordinarily high casualty rates and the potential end of American hegemony in regions long dominated by the United States.