To Embrace, Avoid, or Disavow?: How Perceived Candidate Positions on ‘Defund the Police’ Impact Voting Decisions

Abstract

What does "Defund the Police" (Defund) actually mean? What do voters think it means? Do political candidates actually support the movement? What impact has it had on national and local elections since its entry into the national narrative in 2020? What impact might it have on the 2022 midterm elections? These are all questions that this thesis engages with. This thesis is largely based on analysis of a national survey, and implications for modern American electoral politics, particularly for potential Democratic party strategy around Defund. The research question this thesis aims to answer is, How will voter perceptions of candidates perceived to be connected to Defund the Police influence voter decisions? The paper also looks to summarize and contribute to scholarly discussions around the way Defund is understood nationally, the way this understanding differs across different demographic groups, and prospects for police reform in relation to and separate from Defund. The survey had around 1,200 respondents with 48 questions on topics ranging from crime, Defund, future voting decisions, and police reform. To complement the survey-based research, I also conducted an extensive literature review of polling and academic research around Defund. Finally, I completed a series of interviews with experts in American electoral politics and social movements from across the political spectrum to supplement my analysis. The survey produced a variety of results which both support past polling on Defund and raise new questions. Notable takeaways from the survey analysis include: ● A candidate perceived as supporting Defund gains more opposition than a candidate perceived as opposing Defund receives support ● The disparity between the effectiveness of supporting versus opposing becomes more pronounced when the undecided voter is isolated ● Some of voters who said they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Defund still express support for certain policy goals of Defund ● Some of voters who said they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Defund also said that a candidate opposing Defund has no impact on their voting decision These results demonstrate some of the nuances of how Defund may impact voter decisions, and offer implications for electoral strategies around Defund. The topline takeaway of the survey results -- that opposing Defund gains fewer voters than supporting Defund loses -- re-emphasizes that being associated with Defund currently loses candidates votes, but calls into question certain assumptions around the electoral necessity of disavowing Defund. The finding suggests that Democratic candidates, depending on the particularities of their situation, may want to reevaluate whether opposing Defund is an effective electoral strategy for them. In particular, if the candidate is not aggressively being labeled as pro-Defund by their opponents, the candidate9s time may be better spent pursuing messages other than opposing Defund. The thesis concludes by emphatically recommending further research on the potential effects of positive messaging around police reform. Positive messaging as a strategy could offer a viable alternative to opposing Defund. The thesis ends with a look forward at 2022 midterms and what President Biden may do around police reform.