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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01td96k5633
Title: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Childhood Vaccination Coverage in the United States: A study using mathematical models to explore measles dynamics in New York State following the COVID-19 pandemic
Authors: Harris, Amanda
Advisors: Levin, Simon
Department: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Certificate Program: Global Health and Health Policy Program
Class Year: 2021
Abstract: Vaccination is considered one of the greatest public health achievements and has significantly reduced the morbidity and mortality associated with vaccine preventable diseases in the United States. However, as healthcare facilities became overwhelmed during the COVID-19 pandemic, routine childhood vaccination services were no longer a top priority. It is likely that many children in the United States have missed one or more routine vaccinations and are currently under- or unvaccinated. This poses a severe public health threat to both individuals and to whole communities. Thus, this study aimed to explore the future disease dynamics of measles, a highly contagious vaccine preventable disease, and investigate the potential consequences of measles vaccine coverage declines during the COVID-19 pandemic to inform public health intervention. To do this, an age-structured SEIR model was parameterized with demographic data from New York State as well as national vaccination coverage data. Using this model, vaccination coverage reduction scenarios were simulated into the future to explore the impact of different magnitude and duration coverage declines, as well as the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, on the disease dynamics of measles. Additionally, to inform public health interventions several vaccination catch-up programs were simulated to investigate the effectiveness of age-specific catch-up programs in the United States. The results found in this study confirm that measles likely does pose a considerable public health threat and that the magnitude of coverage decline can significantly impact the future disease dynamics of measles in the United States. Additionally, the results of this study suggested that vaccination catch-up programs targeting school-aged children were likely to be effective at reducing measles transmission and potentially preventing severe outbreaks of measles following the COVID-19 pandemic.
URI: http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01td96k5633
Type of Material: Princeton University Senior Theses
Language: en
Appears in Collections:Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 1992-2022
Global Health and Health Policy Program, 2017-2022

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