Climate Change and Pastoral Violence in Kenya

Abstract

Due to the increasing effects of climate change on our atmosphere, climate and conflict research has become crucial in understanding and addressing the intricate relationships between environmental changes and social dynamics, providing insights for policy-making and sustainable development strategies. This thesis investigates the interplay between climate change, protected areas, and pastoral violence in Kenya, revealing how these elements contribute to the landscape of conflict. Through quantitative and spatial analysis of climate data, conflict incidents, and protected area boundaries, this study highlights the nuanced and multidimensional relationship between climate change and conflict. Going against previous research on climate and conflict in Africa, the results from this thesis show that high levels of rainfall are correlated with higher levels of conflict, for all types of conflicts and for pastoral conflicts, at the regional level and temporal level. These results suggest that livestock raiding plays a crucial role in pastoral violence across Kenya. Additionally, the research showed that the types of protected areas which had the highest concentrations of conflicts included community oriented protected areas and reserves. The thesis suggests that the dissemination of climate change information to pastoralists, inclusion of pastoral communities in the policy making process, and the creation of pastoral migratory corridors are a few of the many strategies which could help mitigate these conflicts in the future. This contribution to the discourse on climate change, conservation, and peace offers evidence-based strategies for sustainable development and conflict resolution in pastoral regions of Kenya.