DONE WITH DEMOCRACY? EXAMINING THE EFFECT OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION ON DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING IN POST-COMMUNIST EASTERN EUROPE

Abstract

Recent reports, such as that by Freedom House, have been pointing to a global trend of democratic regression, as well as a regional trend in the EU’s post-communist Eastern European Member States. Two of the most egregious examples are Hungary and Poland – nations previously lauded as models of EU democratic consolidation. Given the requirements necessary to achieve EU membership – namely successful democratization and the establishment of liberal democratic norms – this democratic backsliding is all the more evident and concerning. Are these two cases indicative of a wider EU trend of democratic backsliding? How do country-level factors interact with EU membership to influence this democratic instability? This thesis examines whether there is a trend of democratic backsliding across the European Union’s post-communist Eastern European Member States, or whether the threats to democracy in Hungary and Poland represent concerning outliers. To test this, this thesis utilizes mixed methods through multiple linear regressions and predictive modeling to examine how religion, political institutions, nationalism, financial crisis, and political participation may interact with EU membership to influence the democratic backsliding seen today. This thesis finds that while Hungary and Poland are experiencing significant democratic backsliding, these cases are not representative of the larger region. Instead, certain country-specific factors, such as Catholic majorities and high religiosity, seem to interact differently with EU membership to influence liberal democratic scores.