Perceiving Xi Jinping’s Perceptions: A Reassessment of the Fate of Taiwan Amid Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

This thesis focuses on the longstanding contention in the Taiwan Strait in light of the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022. In particular, the aim of this piece is to understand how Xi Jinping currently weighs his option to use force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland given the changing international order caused by the prolonged Ukrainian war. Chapter 1 provides the context for how we have arrived in the present moment with respect to China and Taiwan. This historical background situates the reader nicely in the present by explaining the key events that have made the question of Taiwan’s fate still relevant. The chapter will also briefly discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and how the issue relates to China and Taiwan. Xi Jinping is driven by a multitude of factors, and while it may seem at times that he acts out of impulse, his decision to invade Taiwan more likely than not rests on a series of calculations. Therefore, chapter 2 engages in an in-depth leadership analysis of Xi using a variety of sources including his speeches, the opinions of China experts, and a close reading of his change in attitudes and actions towards a plethora of issues dear to him since assuming the presidency in 2012 and before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In this analysis, the goal will be to identify Xi’s deepest held beliefs, or what drives him to act, make sense of his actions and statements through this analysis, and finally touch on his vulnerabilities as a result of such action. Chapter 3 begins with an evaluation of the probability that China would invade Taiwan before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine using the leadership analysis from the prior chapter. The reader will proceed with a discussion of the key takeaways from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that both directly and indirectly impact Xi’s analysis of when to invade the island. These takeaways focus on how the Ukrainian war might have changed the factors used in making an evaluation of the likelihood of war in the Strait before February of 2022, as well as introduce new factors that we must consider in updating our assessment of when an invasion might occur. The conclusion of the thesis will discuss how the Ukrainian war’s impact on the factors most important to an analysis of when Xi might invade Taiwan require the United States, its allies, and Taiwan to think about Xi’s future plans. While brief recommendations are introduced, the aim of this section is to advocate for the efficacy of a readjustment of perceptions of Xi’s plans and the meaning of the limitations of such findings.