DIGITAL TROJAN HORSE: An Analysis of Increasing Authoritarianism across Africa through the Lens of Chinese ICT Engagement

Abstract

In the last few decades, the world has experienced an Information Communication Technology (ICT) revolution. While this is a global phenomenon, ICT development is geographically unbalanced: developed countries were early adopters of ICT, whereas developing countries such as those in Africa still have an infrastructure gap. Consequently, China has stepped in, distributing loans and ICT products to help Africa advance its ICT ecosystem. China’s support has manifested in the construction of smart cities and undersea fiber optic cables, as well as the adoption of smartphones and 5G network technologies across Africa.

While this partnership sounds like an act of benevolence, in reality, the costs for Africa are steep. A polarized debate has formed to discuss Sino-African ICT engagement. On one side, scholars associate engagement with the exportation of the authoritarian “China Model” and social repression tactics that shift the global policy agenda in favor of China’s interests. On the other side, scholars argue that engagement is purely win-win cooperation. While the literature provides differing perspectives on Sino-African engagement, much of the scholarship is based on speculation instead of empirical evidence. Furthermore, scholars rarely focus specifically on the ICT sector, instead analyzing macro-level patterns in economic or political engagement.

Building upon the literature, this thesis evaluates whether Sino-African ICT engagement, as measured by loans and imports from China, is predicted by the regime type of the recipient African country. On a related note, this thesis aims to detect the motivating drivers of China’s ICT strategy in Africa, hypothesizing that the categories include economic, political, and diplomatic incentives. To accomplish these goals, this thesis adopted a mixed-methods approach. First, this thesis incorporated multiple regression analysis to identify the significance of hypothesized predictors of Chinese ICT loans and imports to Africa. Next, this thesis analyzed three case studies—Mauritius (democracy), Nigeria (hybrid), and Egypt (authoritarian)—that serve as a microcosm of Africa and represent each regime type, investigating which of the three driver categories motivate China’s interest in engaging with these types of countries.

In summary, the quantitative results for ICT loans demonstrate that China targets African lending partners with smaller population sizes and a precedent of economic cooperation. In the same vein, China may be adhering to the “lender” interest model, but the results provided inconclusive results about whether regime type is a determinant of the amount of aid received. On the other hand, the ICT imports findings exhibit that China favors authoritarian countries when exporting ICT products to Africa. Based on the case studies, hybrid and authoritarian African countries satisfy all three incentives for ICT engagement, whereas democracies do not offer political incentives. Moreover, the hybrid and authoritarian countries demonstrate that party transitions towards authoritarianism largely coincide with increasing ICT engagement; however, these patterns are not present in the democratic case study.

Lastly, this thesis offers policy recommendations to address these patterns of influence in Africa. The first recommendation is to launch an actionable ICT plan through G7’s Build Back Better World to roll out projects in Africa that compete with China’s Digital Silk Road. The second suggestion is to bolster domestic African ICT industries through financial incentives and cross-sector synergies. The final recommendation is for the U.S. government to promote public- private partnerships when investing in Africa’s ICT sector and to formalize a risk mitigation procedure at the beginning of ICT project cycles. These policy solutions will prevent further shifts towards authoritarianism in Africa and the broader developing world.