The Illusion of Independence: Explaining the Rise of Geoeconomics in the post-Brexit United Kingdom.

Abstract

After the Brexit referendum in 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) joined the bandwagon of countries implementing geoeconomics, defined as the use of economic tools for geopolitical purposes. This has been a puzzling development, given the UK’s focus on freeing itself from the so-called regulatory and anti-liberal shackles of Brussels as a central rationale for leaving the European Union (EU) and given its stated ambition of establishing a “Global Britain” through free trade and free flows of investment. What explains the United Kingdom’s rapid adoption of geoeconomic policies post-Brexit in spite of its history of free-trade liberalism? This question is important, both because it addresses a gap in the recent geoeconomics literature that has overlooked the role of the UK and because it is a test case for the wider political science question of how much freedom governments and countries have in making independent policy choices. Based on several strands of political science literature, this thesis develops a series of explanations rooted in domestic, regional, and international pressures, considering notably the role of elections, European integration, the United States (US), and China. The explanations are then tested through mixed methods including elite interviews, public opinion data, archival analysis, and case studies. The central argument of this thesis is that the UK’s shift to geoeconomic policies was driven by joint pressure from the US and the impact of a changing approach to the relationship with China, which in turn were facilitated by a changing ideology within the Conservative Party and the adoption of similar policies in the EU. This finding contributes to an expanding political science field on the rise of geoeconomics and the framework may have implications for understanding future policy developments in the UK, especially as the political context might change at the next election.