What The Taiwanese Want from America: Taiwanese Public Opinion on The Recent U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

Abstract

The United States has increased its efforts to engage with Taiwan in recent years. Not only is Taiwan, the society currently governed by the Republic of China, a long-standing friend of America since the end of World War II, but its geopolitical, economic, and democratic saliences have also been recognized and emphasized by the U.S. government since the 2010s. The trend of growing U.S. engagement with the island can be detected from increases in arms sales and high-profile visits, most remarkably former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taipei in August 2022 to forestall a possible Chinese invasion of the island as well as increasing U.S. presence in the region amidst the U.S.-China bipolarity. There is also a deepening industrial collaboration between the United States and Taiwan on semiconductor production. Furthermore, Washington has also been underscoring the value of Taiwan as one of the world’s most successful democracies. However, despite such U.S. efforts to reinforce U.S.-Taiwanese ties, local Taiwanese citizens have been increasingly skeptical about America.

Such a discrepancy between the growth of U.S. engagement and Taiwanese skepticism draws attention to local Taiwanese citizens, whose voice is often unheeded in political debates in the United States, and begs the question: What does the Taiwanese public want out of the recent U.S.-Taiwan relationship? The purpose of this paper is to grapple with this question and fill a gap in scholarship that rarely considers Taiwanese public opinion, which is a significant determinant of the future bilateral relationship since the policies of a democratic government like Taipei are influenced by its citizens.

To this end, I measured Taiwanese public opinion through an online poll and a street interview project. The results of these empirical and qualitative analyses were striking. The empirical analysis found that although the Taiwanese people were generally in favor of the recent U.S.-Taiwan relationship, their approval of military, political, and scientific cooperation between America and Taiwan was relatively lower and it seemed to decrease their overall rating of the bilateral relationship. Likewise, the qualitative analysis revealed that whereas most Taiwanese citizens have due appreciation to the United States for its longstanding support for the island, they also question the ways in which the U.S.-Taiwan relationship has been handled recently. Interviewees expressed their skepticism toward and dissatisfaction with U.S. intentions, adverse effects of the engagement on the Cross-Strait relationship, and an unequal power dynamic between the two governments.

These findings not only cast doubt on the foreign policy ethics of the U.S. government but also warn Washington of repeating past mistakes by ignoring foreign public sentiment and producing national security threats, such as in Iran and some Latin American countries. Based on these concerns, this paper provides four strategic implications for the U.S. government. First, it should investigate why military, political, and scientific cooperation is not appealing to Taiwanese citizens. Second, it should clearly communicate the purpose of its engagement with Taiwan. Third, it should expand its soft power engagement, which the Taiwanese people believe will increase mutual benefits between the two parties. Fourth, American politicians should consider revising their assumption about Taiwanese preoccupation with various threats from the PRC. Modifications of the U.S.-Taiwan policies based on these suggestions will reinforce the relationship between the two democracies and allow them to flourish even more in the future.