Strategic Scapegoating: Analyzing the Effect American Elections Have on the Public's Opinion of China

Abstract

This thesis examines the relationship between American presidential elections and the public’s opinion towards China. I argue that election candidate’s use of anti-China rhetoric builds off of China’s negative portrayals in the media and government policies and ultimately contributes to the worsening public opinion of China during election years. First, using regression analysis on aggregate and individual-level survey data, I find that public opinion is strongly and negatively correlated with public opinion. Second, I take a mixed method approach to examine the portrayal of China within government foreign policies and election debates, arguing that the negative framing of China contributes to the perception of a China threat. Third, I conduct regression analysis on four surveys to investigate the role of other factors on the public’s sentiments towards China. Finally, I discuss current and ongoing developments in U.S.- China relations to shed light on how these framings may contribute to worsening public opinion in the future by blaming China for more concerns. This research contributes to the literature on how public opinion informs and is shaped by public policy by providing a framework in which candidates scapegoat China as a means to win votes.