Light the Fireworks: China's Space Program and Prospect-Institutional Theory

Abstract

While China has consistently expressed its readiness to collaborate with the wider international community in the domain of space, the government has previously acted contrary to its core principles of cooperation. To determine if the sphere of space will be characterized by peaceful cooperation or marked by conflict, it is essential to look beyond the text to discern intent. This thesis concentrates on the varying topics addressed in China's white papers on space activities from 2000-2021 by examining the metadata and employing a quantitative method for textual analysis. By contrasting the difference in topic proportions between Chinese and international sources, it becomes feasible to determine whether China is moving closer or further away from the wider international community regarding space. Through the lens of prospect-institution theory, topics can be categorized as relating to inclusive or exclusive balancing. My results indicate that China can be found to be associated with more exclusive balancing, particularly with regard to regional cooperation and security. The outcomes of this quantitative research will illuminate the direction of China's space program, the cooperative or competitive nature of the space domain, and the broader implications for space legislation.