Evaluating Advanced Nuclear Fission Technologies for Future Decarbonized Power Grids

Abstract

In the coming decades, the United States must undergo an energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward a fully decarbonized power grid. There are many pathways that the US could pursue toward this objective, each of which relies on different types of generating technologies to provide clean and reliable electricity. One potential technology that the US could invest in is advanced nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs that bring improvements over traditional ones. However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors are compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs contribute the most value to a decarbonized power grid. This thesis employs an electricity system optimization model to generate initial indicators of future economic value for these reactors, providing insights into how much money can be justifiably invested into the technologies today. The thesis also assesses how this value changes for different reactor designs and policy scenarios, helping identify the design decisions and policy incentives that optimize reactor value. I find that current cost projections for advanced reactors exceed their eventual economic value, so they must be subsidized by the federal government to be cost-competitive. Additionally, adding coupled thermal storage is the best design choice for reactors seeking to increase their value. Policy makers should consider these findings alongside the security implications of expanding nuclear energy when deciding how to decarbonize the US power grid.