Bowling Green as the Achilles Heel: An Updated Analysis of New York City's Subway System in Response to Predicted Sea Level Rise

Abstract

With the United States’ east coast experiencing greater-than-average sea level rise (SLR), it is imperative that major metropolitan areas are protected against increasingly destructive storm events. Utilizing a 2017 elevation survey of New York City (NYC) with a recent (2019) SLR model produced by the NYC Panel on Climate Change, this study updates the outdated NYC subway system resiliency literature. A critical analysis of the system showcases the current fallacies within the infrastructure against SLR and the 0.01 annual chance high water level storm event. Through the employment of two different models, Bowling Green Station in southern Manhattan is predicted to be most at risk of exposure to flood waters in 2080. This result primarily stems from the neglect of this specific station from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (MTA) resiliency framework established after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the great potential for floodwater propagation and destruction in underground stations. With Bowling Green Station’s vulnerability known, the MTA and NYC government must enact the appropriate resiliency measures to protect the station (and other such stations) for decades to come. Financial strain that the agency is faced with under normal circumstances, in addition to stress from the Covid-19 pandemic, suggests that the implementation of resilience measures at Bowling Green Station may only materialize in the latter part of this decade. Nevertheless, this study aims to push for the most robust resiliency measures possible so that future suffering caused by extreme weather is prevented to the best of the city’s ability.