Publish or Perish: Simulating How Researcher and Publisher Behaviors Impact Science

Abstract

Science can be viewed as a collective, epistemic endeavor. However, a variety of factors- such as the publish or perish culture, institutional incentives, and publishers who favor novel and positive findings- may challenge the ability of science to accurately aggregate information about the world. Evidence of the shortcomings in the current structure of science can be seen in the replication crisis that faces psychology and other disciplines. We analyze scientific publishing through the lens of cultural evolution, framing the scientific process as a multi-generational interplay between scientists and publishers in a multi-armed bandit setting. We examine the dynamics of this model through simulations, exploring the effects that different publication policies have on the accuracy of the published scientific record. Our findings provide a formal model of science, highlight the need for replications, and caution against researcher and publishing behaviors that prioritize factors uncorrelated with result accuracy.