Quantifying NFL Head Coach Value: A Look at In-Game Decisions

Abstract

This thesis explores the quantifiable impact of National Football League (NFL) head coaches’ decision-making in 4th down and point-after-touchdown (PAT) situations over the past 10 seasons. It aims to isolate and evaluate the strategic choices made by coaches in these critical game moments, offering a comparative analysis of their effectiveness. Four models are developed: two each for 4th down and PAT decisions, encompassing classification and regression analyses. These models evaluate the ”right decision over expected” and ”win probability added over expected,” using play-by-play data and a win probability model. The results show varying effectiveness among coaches, with a notable distinction between those with positive and negative impacts on team win probability. The year-to-year analysis reveals a slightly positive correlation in 4th down decision-making effectiveness, suggesting there may be a small signal in the decision-making profile of coaches in these situations.