Measuring the effects of threat credibility on deterrence strategy in an iterated prisoner’s dilemma problem

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, new literature on deterrence theory has slowed significantly. However, the known possession of nuclear weapons by eight countries indicates a necessity for continued research in the field. This paper examines the efficacy of deterrence theory using a 2x2 model of the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, and provides a framework for future analysis. I propose that the threat credibility of a player seeking to deter another player from committing some act X can be determined by examining the sum of previous k-deterrence attempts, assuming some large enough k. This in turn helps determine whether or not the threatened player will cooperate.