The Political Effects of Social Media: Assessing Social Media’s Impact on Voter Turnout in the United States from 2008 to 2016

Abstract

Social Media’s explosion onto the political scene has given rise to many questions regarding its effects on political knowledge and participation. The purpose of this work is to investigate the relationship between social media use and voter turnout on U.S. voters between 2008 and 2016. Prior studies of the effects of social media on voter turnout have generated many conflicting conclusions. These studies are often applied on either an excessively narrow or general scope—college students or the entire voting population. Although there are no issues with the methods used to discern social media’s effects, these researchers studied population either fail to address the nuanced adoption of social media along age lines or are too narrow in their exploration. As a result, this thesis seeks to improve upon existing research by arguing that the effects of social media are likely only significant among the younger voter population who have a greater reliance on social media as a source of political news and discourse when compared to those who are older. The primary hypothesis investigated in this thesis is whether over the years studied, increased news consumption on social media platforms will contribute in a significant way on voter turnout. This investigation will also examine whether consumption of political information on social media platforms will have a differential effect on voter turnout based on generational placement. As well as, whether consumption of political information social media appears to have a increasing or decreasing effect on voter turnout over the 3 presidential elections studied. To do so, this study will conduct a time-series analysis of presidential election cycle data gathered by ANES from 2008 to 2016, dividing the voting population across generational boundaries (Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomer, Silent), to quantify the effect reported social media use as a campaign news source effects voter turnout. By performing descriptive statistic and regression analysis, the findings will help illustrate the differing impact of social media (if any) on voter turnout across age categories and understand the origin of these differences. The results show that there are important differences between voters who prefer social media and those who prefer traditional media sources for news consumption. Specifically, those who prefer social media tend to be younger, turnout in lower numbers, and have a lower level of political knowledge. Regression analysis conducted on the entire respondent pool was unable to provide strong evidence linking social media to any effect on voter turnout. However, when the same model was applied to younger generations the findings suggest that the answer may be nuanced and there may be an effect on certain demographics. Ultimately, the expectation that voters who use social media for news consumption would reflect growing impact of social media and turnout proved incorrect. Although this thesis was unable to show social media generates a positive relationship with voter turnout, the results are encouraging that further research may eventually be able to quantify its effects.