Understanding Tactics, Targets, and Strategy Between the Islamic State – West Africa Province and Boko Haram: An Incident Data Analysis

Abstract

This paper examines the operational and strategic distinctions between Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), two of the most prominent terrorist organizations in northeast Nigeria and the broader Lake Chad Basin. By carefully looking at conflict-related incidents recorded in the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and using data visualization techniques in R, this study identifies the divergences between these groups in how they attack, who they target, and their strategies and motivations. The results confirm that Boko Haram significantly relies on suicide bombings and predominantly targets civilian populations, reflecting its strategy to sow societal fear and disrupt civilian life in alignment with its extremist ideological stance. In contrast, ISWAP exhibits a tactical preference for armed assaults and focuses its operations against military and government targets. ISWAP's attack strategies are generally more deadly and coordinated compared to those of Boko Haram, with a greater capacity for media documentation, a strategy consistent with Islamic State Core and its affiliates. The differences in operational tactics between these groups highlight the need to customize counterterrorism strategies to the unique dynamics and objectives of each group. This research contributes to the limited scholarly attention on terrorism in Africa, particularly in the context of the insurgency in northeast Nigeria, by providing a detailed analysis of the strategic and tactical divergences between Boko Haram and ISWAP.