Women's Work and Fertility in Cairo, Egypt

Abstract

Overpopulation concerns have not caused Egyptian fertility rates to decrease. In 2000, the United Nations projected that in 2026, Egypt’s population would reach 96 million people. As of 2023, Egypt’s population has surpassed 110 million people while fertility rates continue to be higher than replacement level. Tunisia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have found success in decreasing fertility rates by increasing their female labor force participation rates. I set out to understand the relationship between Egyptian female labor force participation and fertility rates. The existing literature provides information about the macroeconomic factors that prevent women from participating in the labor force. However, there is a gap in microdata that examines a woman’s individual decision to pursue employment. I fill in the gap by analyzing personally-collected empirical data from low-income Egyptian women in Cairo. I then identify the factors that hinder Egyptian female labor force participation by comparing non-working women’s reservation wages and predicted wages. Results show that Egyptian women’s self-reported reservation wages are two times higher than their respective predicted wage, controlling for age, location, and education levels. This implies that women require compensation for the domestic responsibilities they would need to sacrifice for them to work. In addition, there is a positive statistically significant relationship between work and number of children, likely explained by reverse causality. Finally, I investigate the extent to which fertility rate transitions are strongly related to changes in female labor force participation in countries like Bangladesh. I use this comparative analysis to then provide policy recommendations on how to manage population growth by increasing female labor force participation and decreasing fertility rates in Egypt.