The Impact of 2022 EU and G7 Sanctions Announcements on Daily Conflict Intensity in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

In response to the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and other countries have imposed sanctions on a range of goods and services, as well as targeted sanctions against individuals and businesses. Scholars and policymakers have long debated the efficacy of sanctions as a security tool. However, past studies have largely involved long-term, cross-conflict comparisons. Using the VIINA and ACLED datasets of conflict incidents from the RussoUkrainian War, I construct a measure of daily conflict intensity in Ukraine. I then use a stacked event study of conflict intensity across multiple sanctions periods to estimate the short-term impact of sanctions announcements on the daily number of military operations initiated by Russian and aligned forces. I find no evidence of a statistically significant association between recent sanctions announcements and daily violence in the Russo-Ukrainian War. However, the methodological approach which I lay out has implications for research into other conflict sanctions and other questions regarding the political economy of conflict.