Democracy or Money? The Impact of Hong Kong on Taiwan’s Relationship with Mainland China

Abstract

Through looking at how public opinion in Taiwan regarding mainland China changed due to the protests in Hong Kong in 2014, 2019, and 2020, this paper attempts to answer the question: how much do the Taiwanese value democracy compared to economic benefits? Taiwan finds itself in a very unique position as a self-ruled island surrounded by lots of ambiguity. It has its own functioning government, democratic system, and military under the flag of the Republic of China. However, the PRC government in Beijing and most of the international community regard it as a rogue province of China. Beijing’s position of viewing Taiwan as a rogue province makes it a constant threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty, but due to geographical proximity and how big of an economic powerhouse the PRC has become, it also is Taiwan’s largest trading partner. The actions the PRC took to end the protests in Hong Kong in 2014, 2019, and 2020 are especially interesting because many Taiwanese viewed it as an indirect threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty and freedoms. This conflict of interest that the PRC brings to Taiwan is what this paper seeks to answer. I seek to answer this question by looking at polling surveys, running regressions on telephone survey datasets, examining economic data on Taiwan’s trade with mainland China, as well as speeches from important political figures and newspaper headlines. I conclude that the Taiwanese are affected by the Hong Kong protests, however, the anti-mainland China views that they take during the protests in Hong Kong are only temporary, with the rebound of more friendlier views occurring just one year after the events due to the economic reliance of Taiwan on mainland China. From a broader political theory view, this finding adds to the literature by showing that people will prioritize economic benefits over democracy when democracy is not directly under threat.