Economic Drivers and At-Risk Programming Effects on City-Wide Gun Violence: A Chicago Case Study

Abstract

This research will focus predominantly on the city of Chicago in its various methods to decrease rising criminal and especially homicidal numbers, using the non-profit organization Chicago CRED as the primary case study. A unique approach that expands on basic incarceration and law enforcement methods, CRED’s programming aims to reduce gun violence through outreach to the individuals most likely to get shot or carry a gun and offer individual long-term stability as well as communal safety. In being thorough, the paper takes several approaches, the first to track how these statistics have changed over the past five years and if CRED’s increased involvement (as well as other influential, but less obvious financial variables) is at all correlated with these trends. The second incorporates participant level data to determine the most influential aspects of an at-risk individual’s background in their ability to complete the full program. The last attempts to find the impact program data as well as economic statistics such as average rent and employment status has on gun associated crimes by categorizing individual observations by neighborhood, helping determine if certain variables should be more heavily invested in when working with the more dangerous areas in a city. As expected, the rate of homicides and gun violence in general decreased over the course of the past decade. Incarceration and law enforcement are not failed institutions in creating safer communities. However, there is an already proven financial burden these solutions cause on the city, and with the steep rise in both homicides and gun associated crimes from 2018 – 2020 (Figure 6.11), the incorporation of alternative preventative crime-aid organizations such as Chicago CRED, can reduce these metrics and create safer, more economically efficient communities throughout the country.