Labor Market Trends in Rural Economies: Diminishing Seasonal Fluctuations in Lewis County, NY

Abstract

This paper investigates a downward trend in seasonal fluctuations of the labor market in Lewis County, New York. The county is characterized by contracting seasonal fluctuations in the labor force, employment and unemployment throughout the past three decades. The trend is driven by a downward trend in winter unemployment levels and is not captured by shifts in the industry composition or changing weather patterns. The trend is not isolated to the county, as it is seen in similar counties but to lesser degrees. The trend and the lack of research into this topic have implications for further research and local policy making.