Accelerating Decarbonization of China’s Building Sector Through Supply-Side Low-Carbon Technology Deployment and Demand-Side Efficiency Improvements

Abstract

China, the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, has committed to peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Building operations account for 20% of China’s total carbon emissions in 2022. Decarbonizing China’s building sector is a crucial component of the nation’s efforts to meet its air quality targets, protect human health, and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change. My dissertation investigates the impacts of various technologies and policies on carbon emissions and costs in Chinese buildings. It consists of three analytical chapters. Chapter 2 provides a quantitative assessment of potential energy-savings, costs, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and adoption strategies for increasing building envelope efficiency in Chinese rural residential buildings. I find that for existing buildings, implementing easy and moderate retrofits can reduce CO2 emissions as well as reducing clean heating costs to avoid backsliding to coal. For new construction, deploying the most efficient technologies, i.e., whole-home insulation and heat pumps, reduce CO2 emissions and costs compared to current clean heating policy but significantly increase household upfront costs. Chapter 3 provides a quantitative assessment of costs and benefits of increasing urban building envelope energy efficiency in China from 2020 to 2050. I find the benefits resulted from energy system cost savings and carbon emission reduction are likely to offset or outweigh the technical costs associated with implementing nearly zero energy building standards. However, the cost-effectiveness of building energy efficiency improvements is subject to various factors, including building envelope costs, thermal comforts, and carbon prices. Chapter 4 analyzes the impact of various possible short-term investments in China’s district heating sector (2020-2030) on CO2 emissions and capital and operating costs. I find that replacing dirty coal technologies with existing and new combined heat and power (CHP) plants poses a risk of carbon lock-in from for coal-fired heat and associated coal-fired electricity generation. However, expanding the use of industrial waste heat and air/ground-source heat pumps in district heating systems can avoid the need for new CHP construction while providing household heating at moderately increased cost. My dissertation demonstrates various cost-effective opportunities for China to decarbonize its building sector through both demand-side energy efficiency improvement and supply-side low-carbon technology deployment.