Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity

Abstract

This paper presents evidence on two aspects of strike activity associated with the renegotiation of union contracts: the effects of contract characteristics on dispute probabilities; and the variation in strike activity over tine within bargaining pairs. Cross-sectional and longitudinal estimation techniques show that strike probabilities are higher in summer and fall than winter and spring. Strike probabilities are also increased by increasing the length of time between negotiations, and reduced in limited wage reopening negotiations. Finally, strike probabilities are significantly affected by lagged strike out- comes. Relative to a peaceful settlement of the previous contract, strike probabilities are l0 percentage points higher following a strike of two weeks or less, and 5 to 7 percentage points lower following a strike of longer than two weeks.