Minor Feelings about Major Changes: Post White America’s Mechanisms for Voter Mobilization

Abstract

In 2044, the US Census Bureau predicted the White majority population would be taken over by the minority. The minority in this context is defined as the non-Hispanic White population. The expanding minority population is changing not only the demographics of America, but voting patterns, the fight for racial justice, and the increased demand for representation.

This thesis answers three main questions: How does one’s tie to their racial/ethnic identity translate to a tie to the minority identity? Does making the majority-minority shift salient have an effect on political efficacy for minority groups? What are solutions to unite groups of various races? Can the majority-minority shift be framed as a mechanism to blur the dividing lines of race?

Using quantitative analysis, this thesis approaches the impending majority-minority shift by taking inspiration from Craig et al.’s study “On the Precipice of a ‘Majority-Minority’ America: Perceived Status Threat from the Racial Demographic Shift Affects White Americans’ Political Ideology” which surveys the effect of the majority-minority shift on Whites attitudes towards policy changes. This study takes Craig et al. one step further by using the same treatment and control conditions but exploring political efficacy and racial/ethnic power in the near future and the role that ties to racial/ethnic identity play.

The findings are based on data created in a survey experiment sent out through Qualtrics. Respondents were randomly presented with one of two articles focusing on the majority-minority shift or geographical mobility. The majority-minority article acts as the treatment. Results find that minority racial groups who identify strongly with their identity do not replicate the same feelings towards the term minority. Despite a significant number of participants identifying strongly with their racial/ethnic identities, it does not translate to joining the out-group to politically mobilize. However, a tie to identity translates to higher political efficacy scores.

In conclusion, a post-White America will cease to have an overpowering White majority and there is not enough research conducted on what this new social reality will bring. Racial categories will persist as a unifying mechanism of mobilization. However, a new category will form for multiracials that must be taken into account for assessing racial identification versus expression.