Projecting Measles Susceptibility Build-Up in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Following Vaccination Delays

Abstract

For many countries, COVID-19 has been a formidable obstacle to vaccination efforts targeting infectious diseases, and has caused delays impacting effectiveness of coverage. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), one of these diseases which has resurged is measles, as COVID-19 attributed vaccination delays create pockets of susceptible individuals and facilitate an environment for outbreak. This research creates an interactive map of the DRC to visualize the build-up of susceptible individuals to measles in its 26 provinces, using a looped time series to project susceptible build-up under vaccination disruptions. By taking user input for the parameters of birth rate, R0, duration of disruption, start of disruption, reduction in vaccination, and proportion vaccinated, and initial values for population, susceptible, and infected individuals, the simulation implements equations through time steps corresponding to the inputted duration of disruption. From this projection, the total number of susceptible individuals is indexed from the last time step and displayed onto the map. This visualization allows for pockets of susceptible individuals to be understood at the provincial level under different conditions of vaccination. Insights into disease control and vaccination campaigns are given based on the key observed relationships between parameters of the simulation. Being able to project and visualize the build-up of susceptible individuals to measles can be helpful to health officials and policymakers, particularly when they are challenged with distributing limited resources and in such unprecedented conditions as those created by COVID-19.