The Impact of Climate Change on Migration from Central America to the United States

Abstract

Climate change is expected to cause large-scale human displacement in the 21st century. Climate change induced migration has been a topic of great scholarly interest in recent years. Numerous studies employ micro-level data on individuals and households to study how changes in temperature and precipitation influence migration patterns. Recent literature finds complex mechanisms and incentives behind climate-related migration, as well as significant heterogeneity across regions and demographics. This paper complements existing literature by using macro-level cross-national data and time series methodology to investigate the impact of precipitation on migration from nine Central and South America countries into the US. Results reveal a statistically significant negative correlation between rainfall and migration. A log-linear model with country fixed effects finds that for a 100mm decrease in average annual precipitation, the number of migrants increases by 2-6%, with a lagging effect. A country-by-country analysis shows significant heterogeneity across countries, consistent with findings from existing literature that the climate-migration relationship is highly context-specific. I also find heterogeneous effects across gender and education attainment. A 100mm decrease in rainfall corresponds to a 6-10% increase in migration among people who have had no schooling, compared to the 2-6% on overall migrant population. These results add nuance and new insight to existing narratives on climate-induced migration.