Impacts of Extreme Heat on Solar and Wind Power Production: An Assessment of Princeton University's Net Zero America E+RE+ Pathway

Abstract

Traditional means of energy production (fossil fuels) release large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, causing abnormal rates of planetary warming. Mitigating further greenhouse gas emissions will require increasing penetration of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. Princeton University’s Net Zero America E+RE+ pathway outlines a carbon-neutral US economy heavily reliant on solar and wind energy production (Larson et al., 2021). Configurations are driven by least-cost objectives and constrained by land availability. While this renders the infrastructure plausible, it does not necessarily make it resilient. In this study, we assess the resilience of the E+RE+ pathway to extreme heat events during which energy demand surges. We identify high-risk heat days as those days with: (i) 85th percentile temperature anomalies in a region of interest (β), and (ii) 85th percentile population weighted cooling degree days (α). We compare solar and wind power availability on high-risk heat days between June and August to all days between June and August using (i) historical estimates (1979-2019) and (ii) model projections of the end of the 21st century to assess whether surging demand on high-risk heat days might be matched by the E+RE+ renewable energy infrastructure. We perform analysis in 4 distinct US regions: (i) Texas, (ii) California and Arizona, (iii) Florida, (iv) 8 northeastern/midwestern US states. In Texas, we find that increasing rates of wind and solar power availability on high-risk heat days make it likely that surging energy demands will be matched by non- dispatchable E+RE+ renewable infrastructure. In California and Arizona, we find that consistent, high solar resource on high-risk heat days is likely to match daytime energy demands, though we worry that high nighttime demands are unlikely to be met. In Florida as well as in northeastern/midwestern US states, we find that increases in solar power on high-risk heat days compensate for reduced or average windspeeds, and likely match energy demand on high-risk heat days given a mid-range climate mitigation scenario, although we worry that in more severe climate change scenarios it will fail to do so.