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Title: Disparities in Disease: An Epidemiological Analysis of Chile's Public Health Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors: Edling, Sean
Advisors: Metcalf, C. Jessica
Department: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Certificate Program: Global Health and Health Policy Program
Class Year: 2022
Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 is a contagious and pathogenic coronavirus that is the infectious agent for COVID-19, which caused a worldwide pandemic in early 2020. Chile was greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with its 2020 wave peaking in mid-June at 6,900 daily cases, 400 daily critical cases, and 175,000 cumulative cases, making it one of the worst outbreaks in the world. Chile responded with a series of public health measures, including a rapid vaccine campaign and a municipality-level quarantine system (Paso a Paso program). Chile again experienced a second wave beginning in mid-March 2021, with the country reinstituting full lockdowns after reporting a record high 7084 new cases. This thesis performed a statistical analysis and time series analysis on epidemiological data provided by the Chilean Ministry of Health, finding significant correlations between cases, deaths, socioeconomic status, quarantine strictness, and vaccination rates at the municipality level in Santiago. The time series and cross-correlation plots revealed that high-income areas experienced a lower burden of disease and had higher vaccination rates. The restriction levels of each comuna also influenced the growth rates of reported cases, with a lag of approximately 40 days. The modeling portion of this thesis examined the effects of lockdowns and vaccination rates on disease dynamics, with a 20% reduction in contact rate resulting from quarantine corresponding to over a 75% decrease in the infectious peak compared to the base model.
Type of Material: Princeton University Senior Theses
Language: en
Appears in Collections:Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 1992-2022
Global Health and Health Policy Program, 2017-2022

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