A Duty to Disarm: The Impact of the TPNW on French Nuclear Discourse and Ambition

Abstract

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which entered into force on January 22, 2021, made nuclear weapons illegal under international law. More importantly, it codified a norm that stigmatizes nuclear weapons possession, and it put non-nuclear weapon states on the same footing as nuclear weapon states. However, France has refused to entertain the idea of accession to the TPNW, insisting on a step-by-step approach as laid out by the earlier Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The French have maintained the importance of their deterrent, forging ahead with expensive nuclear modernization plans and marketing their arsenal as a contributor to Europe’s overall security. With nuclear abolitionism facing such staunch opposition, it may seem there is little room for supporters of the TPNW to bring about actual impact. Indeed, that is exactly what the French argue. My thesis thus aims to examine the various ways in which supporters of the TPNW have already ratcheted up the pressure on France, restricted France’s options and partners, and changed the contours of the nuclear debate itself. In this process, I analyze official communications, parliamentary records, and scholarly works. I also conduct interviews with various stakeholders in the field, from TPNW activists to academics working on deterrence. The end goal is to refute the often-repeated sentiment that the TPNW is a pointless document that places no strain on the French nuclear arsenal. I conclude my thesis by offering a number of recommendations for TPNW activists to make their arguments more refined and comprehensive, in order to improve their efficacy and continue slowly turning the screw on France.