Optimizing a Lignocellulosic Biofuel Supply Chain Between 2020 and 2050

Abstract

Meeting climate goals such as net zero emissions by 2050 will require novel, environmentally friendly energy solutions such as biofuels derived from lignocellulosic biomass. Existing biofuel supply chain optimization models do not consider how this supply chain will be established over time or how it will be impacted by changes in the energy market. In this thesis, an optimization model is developed that makes switchgrass-derived biofuel supply chain decisions over the years 2020 to 2050 under different scenarios. The study found that passing policies that encourage clean energy significantly impacts biofuel supply chain decisions. In the absence of such policies, establishing a carbon cost between $100 and $175 per Mg of emissions successfully incentivizes a biofuel supply chain with a greater environmental benefit. The optimal supply chain prioritizes the production of fuel products that do not have green alternatives already on the market; the model found that these products are gasoline and hydrogen. However, the potential environmental benefits of biofuels diminish if feedstock crop yields decrease.