Skip navigation
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title: The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence
Authors: Lee, David S.
McCrary, Justin
Issue Date: 1-Aug-2009
Series/Report no.: Working Papers (Princeton University. Industrial Relations Section) ; 550
Abstract: Using administrative, longitudinal data on felony arrests in Florida, we exploit the discontinuous increase in the punitiveness of criminal sanctions at 18 to estimate the deterrence effect of incarceration. Our analysis suggests a 2 percent decline in the logodds of offending at 18, with standard errors ruling out declines of II percent or more. We interpret these magnitudes using a stochastic dynamic extension of Becker's (1968) model of criminal behavior. Calibrating the model to match key empirical moments, we conclude that deterrence elasticities with respect to sentence lengths are no more negative than -0.13 for young offenders.
Appears in Collections:IRS Working Papers

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
550.pdf1.04 MBAdobe PDFView/Download

Items in Dataspace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.