Between Democracy, Despotism & Military Intervention: Analyzing the Role of ECOWAS and the AU in Shaping Coup Risk and Democratic Backsliding in West Africa

Abstract

Since 2020, eight governments have been overthrown in Francophone African countries. What role have African regional organizations played in both the resurgence and end of coups in the region? In this paper, I argue that the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have inconsistently and ineffectively applied their anti-coup norms and regulations in the region, creating a window of opportunity for the resurgence of coups. At the same time, the lack of political will and divided loyalties of semi-democratic member states have resulted in the failure to respond to coups when they do emerge. Using archival documents from the AU, I find evidence that while the organization condemns and rejects these actions, it does not carry out any concrete steps publicly to encourage transitions back to democratic rule outside of membership suspension. Interviews with regional experts suggest a consensus around my hypothesis that coup leaders have noticed a window in which they can successfully stage a coup and potentially remain in power without major challenges to their rule by African regional organizations. The findings have important implications for political stability, democracy, and governance in the region.