The World Depends on You: The Effectiveness of EU Energy Sanctions on Holding Russia Accountable and Reducing its Military Funding

Abstract

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, signaling the start of a conflict with wide-ranging implications, affecting not just the region but the entire world. In response to Russia's actions in Ukraine, a coalition led by the United States, European Union (EU), and western allies imposed extensive sanctions on Russia to hold Russia accountable for its crimes. A key focus of these sanctions has been Russia's energy sector, which is a crucial part of its economy. As Russia redirected its economic resources to support its military campaign, the role of the EU became increasingly significant due to its influence in Russia's energy market. Consequently, the EU's targeted sanctions on this sector have played an important role in disrupting Russia's ability to finance its military operations. As a result, this thesis examines the effectiveness of the EU energy sanctions against Russia, particularly in holding Russia accountable and curbing its military funding in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It seeks to understand the ways in which sanctions have been more effective, and in what areas they have been less effective and why. Using a detailed policy analysis approach, the research draws upon various sources including news articles, case studies of major Russian energy institutions, and interviews with energy experts. The study explores the intricate relationship between the EU and Russia in the energy sector and how this dynamic has evolved over time, especially in the face of geopolitical tensions. It also aims to understand the progression of Russia’s economy since the onset of the conflict and analyze the changes in trade patterns between Russia and the EU. Additionally, the study examines Russia’s adaptive strategies in response to these developments and assesses the level of compliance among EU member states regarding the implementation of EU sanctions. This thesis concludes that EU energy sanctions have not held Russia accountable or diminished its military funding. This stems from two key factors: Russia's ability to circumvent the sanctions by finding new trading partners outside the EU, offsetting the incurred losses, and the EU's internal struggle to ensure compliance among member states due to the high demand for Russian energy sources and the high cost of adhering to sanctions. Consequently, Russia has managed to sustain a resilient economy, which in turn continues to finance its military budget.