Global Health Effects of Genetically Modified Crops: An Empirical Analysis of Corn and Soy Imports on Health Indicators

Abstract

This paper expands upon the agricultural economics literature on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) and ties it to health economics research on global health indicators like obesity, heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. The intersection of these two fields of study lies in country-level trade data of some of the most significant agricultural products in the world, like corn and soy. By analyzing trade flows between countries over time and the health outcomes in those countries, we can see if there are macro-level trends of GMOs having positive or negative effects on global populations. Further, there is a lot of variation in sentiment towards GMOs around the globe, with various approaches to cultivation, consumption, and importation. Fortunately, the United States is a world leader in corn and soy exports and exports to various countries at different rates. The growth of GMO consumption is correlated with the global rise of obesity, heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. This analysis utilizes ordinary least squares fixed effects models to look at panels of country and year to compare trade and health. A key component of this analysis is the income level of the importing country, to understand how GMO importation and consumption affects countries at different income levels. We expect to see a "horseshoe curve" where low-income countries see a positive health effect, middle-income countries have a neutral effect, and high-income countries have an adverse health effect. Our results did not match this hypothesis perfectly but showed a similar concept. The threshold lower-middle-income category saw adverse health effects, with average health levels for higher-income countries and higher levels of health for low-income countries. These findings contribute to the literature on the relationship between health and income and supports the global adoption of GMOs to help solve global food insecurity.