What Happens in Vegas: A Quantitative Analysis of Profit-Seeking Strategies in NBA Betting Markets

Abstract

Sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry, attracting eager bettors by the day. This thesis investigates whether there are any weaknesses in the National Basketball Association (NBA) point spreads, moneylines, and preseason win total predictions using four seasons’ worth of data. It is the first known work to quantitatively analyze predictive metrics for the direction and magnitude of a singular game’s point spread movement from opening until game time, and then use those predictors to formulate a betting strategy. It further researches profit-making strategies under specific scenarios for both point spreads and moneylines. It concludes with an attempt to use preseason total win predictions as predictors of individual game outcomes. Though no true predictors for point spread movement were found, the thesis succeeds in noting a handful of betting strategies that would have been profitable over the last four years.