An Epidemiological and Health Policy Analysis of COVID-19 in the United States

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world since November of 2019. The disease, and its virus, SARS-CoV-2, have forced economies to shut down, people to stay at home, and overload our health care system. Because of its novelty, much is still not known about the pathology and epidemiological trajectory of this disease. Thus, my senior thesis aims to analyze the existing literature of COVID-19 to address questions that still remain, with specific focus on the United States response to the pandemic. In particular, I plan to focus on accessing the national public health response, monitoring the vaccine administration progression, and addressing disparities in health outcomes. I plan to use a combination of theoretical and experimental approaches to determine the most critical factors in controlling the spread of this pandemic. Using information provided by COVID-19 tracking projects, I provide predictive models for US cases and death totals leading into the summer of 2021, theoretical models for how many US deaths could have been prevented, and policy guidelines to improve our current public health infrastructure. I conclude that in order to prepare for any future pandemics, there must be coordination on the federal, state, and local levels, with a top-down approach in leadership. In addition, there needs to be initiative to truly improve our public health infrastructure and promote health equity. Future research should study the long-term ramifications of COVID-19 in both the US and the world as a whole, along with creating policy to improve our public health system in an event of any future pandemics.