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Title: Exploring the Development and Use of a Multinomial Logit Model to Improve Betting Returns at Saratoga Race Course
Authors: Markiewicz, Michael
Advisors: Fan, Jianqing
Department: Operations Research and Financial Engineering
Class Year: 2013
Abstract: Inspired by the abundance of first time players, sentimental bettors, and "drunk" money prevalent at Saratoga Race Course during the summer racing season, this paper explores a statistical approach to systematically handicap horse races. A number of observable attributes, believed to affect winning potential, are analyzed for predictive capability. Using a multinomial logit model, fundamental win probabilities are calculated. The public oddsline is then incorporated into the fundamental model. Holdout validation methods are employed and three wagering strategies are tested. Following the procedures outlined in Bolton and Chapman (1986), Chapman (1994), and Benter (1994), positive expected returns are realized.
Extent: 73 pages
Access Restrictions: Walk-in Access. This thesis can only be viewed on computer terminals at the Mudd Manuscript Library.
Type of Material: Princeton University Senior Theses
Language: en_US
Appears in Collections:Operations Research and Financial Engineering, 2000-2017

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