Quantifying the Effects of Gentrification on Coercive Displacement in New York City

Abstract

This paper will rigorously explore the relationship between gentrification and coercive displacement. The broader consensus through quantitative studies is that gentrification leads to exclusionary displacement more than expulsionary displacement. Yet, anecdotal prevalence of landlord malfeasance indicates that current literature cannot fully explain the relationship between gentrification and displacement. From arson to sabotage to intimidation, landlords have taken drastic measures in order to remove tenants from their apartments. Affordable housing regulation allows lower income tenants to pay below-market level rents. However, when gentrification occurs, the value of a housing unit can rise dramatically, creating a financial motive to remove rent-controlled residents. Legislation, like high rent vacancy decontrol, allows units in New York City that would rent at above $2,700 to become deregulated upon vacancy. This is the legal incentive to displace. Given high demand for housing in New York, low vacancy rate, and rising prices, it seems that landlords would be incentivized to force their tenants out to access higher rents. However, there has heretofore not been a quantitative exploration of this topic. New York City’s open data laws, coupled with solicitation of community partners, have allowed this novel research to take place. Through regression analysis, the incremental effects of gentrification on hazardous violations of the NYC Housing Maintenance Code can be demonstrated. This data is linked with evictions data. Through geocoding and a rigorous validations process, relevant data is assembled into a usable form. The three primary analytical avenues include linear regression with controls from Census and American Community Survey data, autocorrelative models, and a custom matching analysis to show pre-post gentrification differences in a gentrifying tract and a non-gentrifying control Using multiple methods, strong evidence emerges that gentrification is linked with higher numbers of immediately hazardous housing violations. These increases cannot be explained solely through demographic or economic factors. Moreover, the magnitude of effects is large, with an approximately 25% increase in incidence of violations that can be seen post-gentrification. Even if only five to ten percent of incremental violations leads to displacement, replacing lost units could cost New York City up to $400 million a year. Challenges to solving this issue include State-level legislation, which inhibits the City from pursuing solutions; an under-resourced City department; and the potentially low education level of rent-controlled tenants. Analysis of potential solutions shows that funding community organizations and raising the decontrol threshold can be quantitatively proven to be useful tools to combat coercive displacement. Furthermore, racial and education-level factors correlate with higher incidence of coercion. Therefore, targeting affordable housing preservation efforts on neighborhoods with poorer, less educated, and higher minority populations is necessary.