Transitioning from Terror: A Case Study on Hezbollah and the Mozambique National Resistance Movement

Abstract

Hezbollah is a particularly influential and unique actor in Middle Eastern politics and its role in the political sphere has been explored numerous times. The group began as an anti-Israel army and is now one of the strongest factions in Lebanon, seen as the protector of the state. Hezbollah has killed thousands of people, has fought in many wars, and has shaped global policy for decades. The militant organization is backed by Iran and Syria, two of the largest influencers in the Middle East. It has taken on a political role in recent years and has the support of significant political figures in Lebanon, yet still has retained its militaristic ways. This thesis explores the possibility of Hezbollah transitioning to a peaceful political party from a militant organization. In order to do this, I examine and compare two militant groups, Hezbollah and the Mozambique National Resistance Movement, and give policy recommendations for the Lebanese government on how to approach Hezbollah in the future. These recommendations are based on RENAMO’s experience transitioning to a political party. This piece addresses the questions: Can Hezbollah transform from a military power to a peaceful entity within Lebanese politics? And what can actors in the Middle East do to spur this transformation? To answer these questions, I created a comparison using methodology based on Seth Jones and Martin Libicki’s methodology in their book How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering Al Qa’ida. Building on their methods, I was able to compare Hezbollah and RENAMO and find some major takeaways. The thesis offers some hypotheses for Hezbollah as an entity in Lebanon. The first hypothesis addressed is that Hezbollah shifting to a more politically-based organization would benefit the group in Lebanon and in the international community. To do this, the current Lebanese government must increase pressure and accountability on Hezbollah. Additionally, Hezbollah will want to attempt to distance itself from the Syrian Civil War to maintain both international credibility and its domestic strength. Lastly, Hezbollah must keep Lebanese citizens economically and politically incentivized in order to retain the power they enjoy or they will be forced to use more military action to preserve their position. A lack of incentives for citizens will allow other opposition factions to gain power. The Lebanese government will need to do the same if they hope to maintain power against Hezbollah. A few conclusions come out of the comparison between Hezbollah and RENAMO. Generally, the Lebanese government will need to increase pressure and accountability on Hezbollah, both militarily and politically. The government could look for support from international sources to help balance Hezbollah’s military strength. Additionally, the Lebanese government needs to encourage a distancing of Iran from Hezbollah through various means to create a more peaceful organization. Lastly, the Lebanese government should also lead campaigns and other activities to encourage Lebanese political groups who oppose Hezbollah. This threat could force the group to become more political.