Non-Democratic Partnerships: The Growing Economic and Political Relationship between Hungary and China

Abstract

This thesis explores the growing economic and political relationship between Hungary, a backsliding European Union (EU) member state, and China, a growing authoritarian hegemon. Through an exploration of regime types and transitions, this thesis asserts that existing typologies are insufficient to describe the complexities of backsliding regimes today. To redefine the modern-day Chinese and Hungarian states, this thesis combines existing literature on non-democratic regimes with a thorough analysis of the economic, political, social, and legal changes in both countries over the last decade. In doing so, it defines the Chinese regime as a “Dual State,” taking direct inspiration from Ernst Fraenkel’s concept of the “Nazi Dual State.” It defines the Hungarian regime as a “Legalistic Mafia State,” which allows for an analysis of the driving factors behind Hungary’s campaign toward illiberalism through the lens of the mechanisms it employs to make it possible. It argues that the two countries’ relationship is rooted in their shared characteristics and complementary motivations. Their growing partnership is characterized as a patron-client relationship built around expanding China’s international influence and further entrenching illiberalism and corruption in the Hungarian state.

In the end, this thesis argues that modern Sino-Hungarian relations pose threats to the current state of global security, as their growing partnership has the potential to undermine the roles of key international institutions such as the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The only way to counter the growing threats posed by the rise of these non-democratic regimes is to not only strengthen international institutions committed to democracy and the rule of law, but to encourage these institutions to leverage their powers to protect the principles upon which they theoretically stand. Therefore, this thesis recommends that international organizations do the following:

1) In accordance with the Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2092, the European Commission of the EU should cut 100% of its funding to Hungary 2) Building on Regulation 2019/452, the EU should establish a centralized review board to monitor foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to member states 3) The new NATO Strategic Concept, to be adopted at the 2022 Madrid Summit, should include provisions for an annual review of member states’ commitments to NATO core principles

The above provisions aim to utilize the competencies of powerful multilateral institutions to reaffirm the importance of democracy and reestablish the norms and practices integral to upholding the rule of law. In doing so, they emphasize that international institutions can no longer remain silent against modern threats of authoritarian influence.