Detectability of Sol Systems with Kepler and TESS

Abstract

We address the question of whether our solar system is unusual by simulating a universe in which systems identical to ours are ubiquitous, and then simulating what transiting exoplanets would be detected by the Kepler and TESS missions in this universe. We study three cases, where insolation flux, semimajor axis, and orbital period are, respectively, held to their values in our solar system. We find that in the constant-flux case, between 5 and 50 analogs of Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn would each be detected by Kepler. Under these same conditions, hundreds of of Jupiter and Saturn analogs would be detected in the first two years of TESS operation, as well as between 1 and 10 Venus and Earth analogs, likely all around M dwarfs. We also examine whether two or more solar system analog planets could be detected transiting the same star; we find that this occurs ${\sim}1$ time with Kepler, and with expected value well below unity for TESS. When comparing these simulations to real data, we do not find sufficient evidence to reject the idea that solar systems resembling ours could be common.