Shoot Basketballs… Not People! How an NBA Team’s Success Impacts Local Crime Rates

Abstract

Previous research suggests that sports can lower or increase crime rates in their surrounding area. This impact was also proven to exist at a professional level where fans and other consumers come together in large groups to cheer for their favorite professional sports team. Using the data of 16 NBA teams’ regular season performance, ability to meet predicted win totals created by Las Vegas Casinos, and playoff outcomes from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 season, a team’s “success” was measured. This measure of success was compared to the crime rates of 7 different crimes. in the 14 corresponding cities, in the years 2011-2019 in order to see if an NBA team’s success was correlated to an increase or decrease in crime rates for that year. There were 8 “Big Market” teams and 8 “Small Market” teams used in the study to find the impact of having more money/resources and crime rates. The study showed that NBA performance tended to have a weaker correlation with crime rates, no matter the size of the market. However, Big Market teams were found to have 23 total “strong” correlations, compared to the 10 “strong” correlations between the Small Market teams collectively. There was not a specific crime that saw significant amounts of strong correlation to an NBA teams’ success.